|
Firebolt to strike again!
We were hugely impressed with the first Australian run of Kiwi visitor Firebolt at Doomben recently and feel that the underlying strength of that performance leads to him being excellent value at eachway odds in the third race at Eagle Farm tomorrow.
Yes, we know that there are plenty who are prepared to pot the horse tomorrow because of the big jump in class to listed level, but the Roger James-trained gelding did it at both ends last start and at the odds, we're prepared to risk a repeat effort tomorrow.
And of course the Mug Punter has twisted our arm to ensure that that the horse's mile credentials are covered with Firebolt's mile record of three wins and four placings from ten 1600 metre starts satisfying our punting mate.
Rockdale (who held on really well last start for a wet-tracker without a 'good' track win to his name) should lead tomorrow to provide a lovely on-pace sit for Firebolt.
It was a welcome (and overdue) return to the winners' list for the headline specials last week with two of our three selections winning - Aultone in Sydney at $4.60 and Elusive Touch in Melbourne at $2.70.
It was a big day overall for Whisper selections with a final tally of four from six when the Mug scored with Set for Fame ($5) and Gavin Haynes scored with Catapult ($3.20). Throw in the 100% success of Lindsay with his two lays (La Etoile and Dariana) and you've only got yourself to blame if you didn't finish in front.
This week's headline specials
Firebolt (Eagle Farm race 3)
Anniversary (Flemington race 2)
Stifle (Randwick race 4)
Lindsay's Lay of the Day
Another two went over last week with both La Etoile and Dariana failing to salute.
That takes Lindsay's beaten tally to eighteen from the last twenty-two lays, an incredible tally really when you consider the general market strength of his nominations. What is one 'expert's' best bet is more than likely to be a Lindsay's lay!
This week's lays are:
Eagle Farm race 6: Dariana
Eagle Farm race 8: Rothesay
Gavin to double up again!
He doubled up with Catapult last week for a profitable return and Horsetorque's Gavin Haynes is trying it again this week by declaring his last-time big-priced winner Pressday a good thing in the T J Smith at Eagle Farm tomorrow.
Incidentally, Catapult's win at $3.20 last week took Gavin's recent winning sequence to eight from ten for his last ten VIP specials. Don't forget to click on the Horsetorque box below if you want to find out more about his daily service.
PRESSDAY (Eagle Farm race 4) has been huge for us and I see no reason why he can't bring up the hatrick as he meets them all at set weights again and is drawn to get the run of the race from the six gate.
Nash rides for the powerful Waller yard and he will get a lovely trail from this draw. The mile looks ideal and he can bring up the hatrick.
Looks like another big Brisbane winter winner, for mine.
The Mug sticking to Brisbane!
With Straddie day being the highlight of the Queensland racing year and wet tracks a distinct possibility at both southern venues tomorrow, the Mug Punter has decided to concentrate solely on the Eagle Farm meeting for his value chances tomorrow.
In racebook order, he's kicking off with Scouting Wide in the 2400 metre Brisbane Cup (race 5).
Most readers are aware that the Mug has a soft spot for on-pace types who hold on well at the end in fast run races. Scouting Wide fits the bill admirably here; at his last start he was taken on in front by Sir Slick but continued to fight strongly to the line for a four-length sixth to Triple Honour in the 2200 metre Eagle Farm Cup.
Now in the same way that he likes 1600 metre form in mile races, the Mug looks for 2400 metre specialists too. And that's where Scouting Wide comes up trumps again with three wins and a second from five tries at the distance.
Throw in a 7kg weight drop from his last run along with his current double-figure quote and the Mug reckons you've got a nice eachway proposition. He's not worried about the nineteen barrier tomorrow, anticipating the horse will have no trouble scooting across to the front.
The Mug's gone for a $30+ chance in Shellscrape as his Stradbroke value hope tomorrow.
He reckons this Chris Waller-trained 3yo turned in a huge run in the 10,000 when he fought on strongly to finish just 2.3 lengths from Hot Danish after a wide, wide run.
Shellscrape turned in a great run behind Ortensia in the Galaxy three runs back and then had his next two runs at WFA. He drops a big 6.5kg on those runs tomorrow and should get a nice run with cover off the speed.
He's won his only start over the Eagle Farm 1400 metres course and the Mug's favourite Tim Bell is on board tomorrow.
If you're looking for a chance outside the favoured runners, the Mug suggests Shellscrape is worthy of very close scrutiny.
The Mug is suggesting that there's a good chance that the smart Elvstroem colt Carrara could return to form in the last race at Eagle Farm tomorrow.
He's beautifully placed in tomorrow's 3yo company at set weights and provided he's taken no harm from his tough last-start run when fresh in the 10,000, he should shake the life out of this lot.
Remember, says the Mug, this is the group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes winner who also ran second to Denman at his first two runs last preparation.
As you'd expect from the Mug, Carrara brings good mile form into the race with a win and a second from three tries at the distance.
The Mug's been on-song recently in correctly anticipating big winning improvement in performance and he's hoping that Carrara can continue the trend tomorrow.
The Mug notes that his last-start tip Keyora reappears in the Derby (race 6) tomorrow.
The lightly-raced John Wheeler-trained 3yo was beaten just 2.3 lengths by Kutchinsky in the Grand Prix last start at a big price when he struggled to get a clear run in the straight. He's at a $20+ quote tomorrow and could provide some value for your exotics.
Set For Fame ($5) showed the improvement the Mug was anticipating last week to continue the Mug's hot winning streak.
He's had at least one winner from his three weekly selections for nine of the last eleven weeks. If you'd backed all of his selections straight out in that time, you'd have around 115% profit on turnover. Well done, old fella.
The Weekend Whisper is produced for the benefit and enjoyment of the members of Lindsay Gallagher's VIP Club. While all care is taken with the contents, no reponsibility is taken for any errors which may occur. You are reminded that betting on horses is a high risk activity and under no circumstances should you ever bet more than you are prepared to lose. Lindsay Gallagher takes no responsibility for the use of the content of this newsletter or material on the VIP Club website. Contact us on help@thevipclub.com.au.
|
