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First Command to rule!
The Lee Freedman-trained First Command is the class runner in the listed Chief De Beers Quality (race 3) at Doomben tomorrow and really does look like the good thing of the day on a highly competitive Doomben 10,000 program.
With a bit of luck the bookie-boys will look at the 59.5kg to be carried by the horse and chance their arm a bit, but by gee, when you scrutinise this horse's record against his opposition tomorrow, we reckon you'd have to be game to bet against him.
It was just last spring that he led down the straight six at Flemington in the group 2 Gilgai to be nabbed in the last stride by top-notcher All Silent. It didn't take the son of Commands long to make amends because he came out next start to win his own group 2, the Caulfield Sprint where he disposed of subsequent group 1 winner Turffontein.
And it's not just the class angle he's got covered tomorrow either. He's unbeaten in three starts over 1100 metres and has an imposing first-up record of two from three.
There looks to be plenty of speed in tomorrow's race and from his good draw he should get the run of the race behind the leaders and pounce on them at the end.
A wipe out for our three headline specials last week but no damage done when Horsetorque's Gavin Haynes stepped up to the plate with $14 winner Pressday in Brisbane. And how good is the Mug Punter going? He predicted a form turnaround by Paprika in the first and home she cruised to land a $7 into $5 plonk.
We notice there's been a bit of criticism of Headline Special Graceful Anna's run last week. Maybe she has reached her mark, but just bear in mind that she wasn't ridden patiently last week and she was well away from the "fast" line out wide that several of last week's winners managed to find.
This week's headline specials
First Command (Doomben race 3)
Cornwall Park (Randwick race 7)
Eight Bills (Moonee Valley race 6)
Lindsay's Lay of the Day
Just a word of advice - after last week's results, don't mention Skytrain around Lindsay.
He protects his outstanding record here with a vengeance and to be thwarted by the same horse in consecutive runs is more than he can bear. Needless to say, Skytrain won't be appearing here again as a future lay (but then again, maybe that would be the ultimate challenge for our boy!)
Thankfully he managed to get the previously unbeaten Buffering knocked over last week.
This week's lays are:
Doomben race 4: Ringa Ringa Rosie
Doomben race 7: Ortensia
A headline act!
He must be one of the most consistent tipsters around and just to show that he can pull out a bit of value as well, Horsetorque's Gavin Haynes struck with Pressday last week at a double figure quote. Backed from $11 into $8.50 with the bookies, Pressday paid over $14 on all totes. Well done, Gavin!
Gavin has recently released his new Horsetorque Lite product which gives you the top chances in all Australian TAB races. He's charging a very reasonable price for what is a super product. As well as having Pressday on top last Saturday, he also had the $21 winner Star Scream top rated in Melbourne. Click on the Horsetorque box below for the Horsetorque website.
AHDASHIM (race 8 Doomben) has the Ryan polish and looks a great way to finish the day. A confirmed 106 horse who was a big winner last start over the talented Pinwheel, he came from last to win in slick time.
He's proven at the trip, drawn to get the run of the race, drops back to restricted grade but stays at the same weight and ready to peak third up.
He looks a good thing, for mine.
Keyora to bid them sayonara!
The Mug is ignoring one of his selection maxims to select a Kiwi visitor in Brisbane but he's had so much luck with the Kiwis at winter carnivals through the years that he's hoping his indiscretion won't cost him.
The John Wheeler-trained Keyora is jumping 800 metres in race distance for tomorrow's 2200 metre Grand Prix, normally a cardinal sin to the Mug, who puts a 400 metre jump as his limit.
But then again, John Wheeler does know a thing or two about what it takes to win a race in Brisbane during the winter and the Mug is prepared to defer to the trainer's record in this instance.
And the Mug reckons there's enough in this horse's NZ form to suggest that the $20+ odds being touted at the moment might constitute value. The colt for example is already the winner of two group 2 races back home and he holds a victory over Descarado in the Trentham Breeders Guineas.
Hugh Bowman does the steering tomorrow and the Mug can see the horse enjoying the run of the race from his good draw.
Yes, there's a bit of speculation around this one, but that's what you get at these odds and the Mug is hoping that his winning momentum of the last few months hangs around for Keyora to bid them farewell in the straight.
The Mug is really keen on Love Conquers All as a horse with a future and suggests that he's a great horse to follow if things don't work out for him first-up tomorrow.
The lightly-raced Mossman 3yo has won three of his six starts and boasts some form lines that suggest that he'll be a great knock-out chance tomorrow at his first start against the older horses.
He beat recent winner Happy Hippy in the listed Crowley last October and had no luck at his next start when beaten 2.5 lengths by Headway in the group 1 Coolmore.
And then he bloused Latin News (a $9 chance in tomorrow's 10,000) off a two-month break last December.
He's unbeaten in two Randwick starts, has won one from two over the 1100 metres and is a first-up winner. He hasn't started on anything worse than a dead on which he's been a winner. Just keep on the trail of this fellow, urges the Mug.
The Mug's Melbourne value tip She Commands is currently around $31 and as a 6yo mare has an uninspiring two from twenty-six winning record.
But the Mug reckons she's put in two screamers this time in, beaten less than a length both times. Both of these runs have been at Cranbourne and it's interesting to note that she's been scratched from a Cranbourne race tomorrow to start in town.
She's a placegetter at both the track and distance and has raced recently as if the step up to 1500 metres tomorrow will suit. A useful roughie for your quaddies, suggests the Mug.
The Weekend Whisper is produced for the benefit and enjoyment of the members of Lindsay Gallagher's VIP Club. While all care is taken with the contents, no reponsibility is taken for any errors which may occur. You are reminded that betting on horses is a high risk activity and under no circumstances should you ever bet more than you are prepared to lose. Lindsay Gallagher takes no responsibility for the use of the content of this newsletter or material on the VIP Club website. Contact us on help@thevipclub.com.au.
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