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Soiled to show 'em a clean pair of heels!
Hardly likely, with the mud that's likely to be around tomorrow, but you know what we mean. It's terribly tricky, what with the weather and the track, to be predicting how things will play out at Eagle Farm, so we're hoping that Soiled might present a bit of eachway value in the main race of the day.
We reckon that the lightly-raced 7yo will be just about ready to hit his straps at his fifth run from a break. He's had two 1200 metre runs followed by another two over 1350 metres and been caught wide on a few occasions.
He's up to a mile tomorrow; he's got one win from two previous tries at the Eagle Farm mile. He's also a winner of two from four on a slow track.
We won't be surprised if he leads tomorrow and that just might be an advantage under the anticipated conditions.
Only the two headline specials last week for a win and a second. Velocitea won easily in Melbourne at $2.40 and Shoot Out's strong run into second at $7 was probably the run of the day at Rosehill against the leader bias.
This week's headline specials
Soiled (Eagle Farm race 6)
Rangirangdoo (Warwick Farm race 6)
Avenue (Flemington race 2)
Lindsay's Lay of the Day
It had to happen sooner or later and over he went big-time last week when hot pot Typhoon Tracy justified her short price at Caulfield. Just for a few seconds there in the straight when the mare took a while to rally, it looked like he might have been right again but in the end, the class kicked in to confirm that she should be ranked up there with our all-time great mares.
Now what's he going to do tomorrow? Play it safe or ride to the front again? I think we know the answer!
Lindsay is raising doubts about whether Denman justifies his long odds-on quote. Time and again here at the Whisper, it's been shown that mile form is special form and irrespective of what they do at distances either side of 1600 metres, you can't be sure that they'll do it at a mile until they've done it.
This week's lays are:
Flemington race 5: Trim
Flemington race 7: Denman
No Irish luck needed here!
There'll be no luck needed, she'll just win, says Horsetorque's Gavin Haynes when assessing the chances of Irish Lights in the Kewney stakes at Flemington tomorrow.
Irish Lights (Flemington race 5). This 3yo daughter of Fastnet Rock is a classy type and her speed ratings confirm that, as she is already a confirmed 110 ratings horse.
She is a Group 1 winner having won the 1000 Guineas last time in and she looks ready to peak third-up and will relish the big, long straight at HQ’s.
She is proven here at Flemington and has never missed the podium at the trip and looks primed to finish over the top of them. She has the Hayes polish and Glen Boss in the saddle.
I also think a couple of her rivals in Trim and Gigas may have peaked last time and their numbers seem to confirm this.
At $5.50 pre-post, Irish Lights looks to be an outrageous eachway bet to nothing, for mine.
It won't shock the Mug!
The Mug Punter is predicting a return to form for last year's Melbourne Cup winner when Shocking goes around in the Australian Cup at Flemington tomorrow.
The Mark Kavanagh-trained 4yo will strip much fitter for his two runs from a break following his Cup victory; he's previously come to hand quite quickly after a break and will be suited by the jump up to 2000 metres, a distance at which he's never been out of the money (with a win, a second and a third from three tries).
And the other Shocking stat that caught the Mug's eye is the horse's unbeaten Flemington record. Three from three is the score there and the Mug's hoping that come tomorrow night, it'll be four from four.
The Mug's gone for the smart Snowden mare Neroli to provide some betting value in the Liverpool City Cup (race 7) at Warwick Farm tomorrow.
The Mug says not to be put off by the fact that she's first-up in a group 3 tomorrow.
Last preparation she was beaten a nose first-up by Velocitea in the group 3 How Now stakes at Caulfield. And at her previous first-up run she won the group 3 Millie Fox before beating Hot Danish two starts later in the group 1 Queen of the Turf.
So she's a smart mare with excellent fresh form. As well, if the forecast rain arrives in Sydney, it might be worth remembering that she's unbeaten in three starts on slow or heavy tracks.
The Lord only knows what conditions will be like by the last in Brisbane tomorrow, but the Mug has unearthed a smart neddy who could well be suited by the eventual conditions.
The Brian Guy-trained Marqualo is a first-upper who has won three from five when resuming. He looked to be on target to maintain this strong fresh form when an easy three length winner of a 1000 metre barrier trial at the Gold Coast on 23 February.
Importantly, he's a duck in the wet, with a win and a second from two slow track runs and is a winner at his only start on a heavy track. As an added form bonus, he's got a win and a second from two goes over the Eagle Farm 1200 metres.
Bay Window ($6.50) nearly got home for the Mug last week when caught in the last hop by the favourite in the final race at Rosehill. This week, maybe?
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