Thursday 16 October
 
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Lindsay will be fielding at Eagle Farm on 
Saturday. 


Don't forget that you can bet on all of the southern Spring racing with him.  


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                     The Mug's mile high at the moment...

It’s a pretty fair bet that the yahooing you might have heard in the betting ring last Saturday as the horses crossed the line in the Toorak at Caulfield was the Mug Punter urging the winner Alamosa home at $10. Actually, he’s been doing a bit of yahooing lately, with Mentality getting up in the George Main at double figures a fortnight ago and then Gallica scoring in the midweek Thousand Guineas at $6.50.

All of these horses were backed by the Mug because they qualify as what he calls his mile high horses – horses racing over a mile with strong disclosed mile winning form.

After a decade or three of hopeless addiction to the punt, the Mug has become a voracious collector of statistics in the hope that one day he’ll unearth that unique angle that will return his squandered pay packets of yesteryear and finally deliver him the lifestyle that he’s sure he so richly deserves. And it’s probably his mile high approach that has got him closest to achieving this objective.

Over the years, the Mug has observed that 1600 metre (or mile) races are often the domain of the specialist horse. There’s something special about that mile distance; speedy squib sprinters have no chance of seeing it out and the typical stayer just doesn’t have the turn of foot to get to the post first, particularly in the better class miles. It’s that middle ground distance requiring just the right mix of speed and stamina.

And you can never be sure how a horse will handle a mile until they’ve tried it. There have been countless examples of horses that run home strongly at the end of 1400 metres, but just cannot see out the mile, and then there are horses that have the stamina to win at 2000 metres but just don’t have the speed to beat them at a mile.

And the other advantage that he’s found in betting in mile races is that your horse is less likely to be brought undone by interference or poor pace. There’s not as much jostling in mile races for a position as you’ll usually find in sprint races because there’s more time for jockeys to find a position. As well, pace is likely to be truer and it’s very rare to have slowly run races that can completely ruin a horse’s chances like you’ll often find in the longer staying races.

With his mile high approach, the Mug eagerly searches each mile field looking for multiple mile winners. He literally salivates when he finds a mile race with a favourite that’s had a few beaten mile starts when there’s a multiple mile winner in the same field.

The Mug has scored with three mile high specials during the last fortnight. First we had Mentality winning the George Main Stakes at $12 with a record of three wins and two placings from six mile starts. And then last Saturday Alamosa won the Toorak at $10 with a mile record that read four wins and a second from six tries. Then the Mug was on Gallica at $5.50 in Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas with an unbeaten three from three over the mile.

What is remarkable about these three winners is their prices. They each easily had the best mile form in their respective races and there were plenty of unproven mile performers much shorter in their markets. As most regular punters are aware, it’s getting harder and harder these days to find value at the track, but these examples suggest that proven mile form can be a factor overlooked in markets.

The Mug Punter publishes a mile high selection in Friday’s Weekend Whisper which is sent free of charge to all VIP Club members.

 


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